Thursday, April 7, 2011

RomneyCare’s Popularity in Massachusetts

I’m hardly the guy to vouch for the reliability of this Suffolk University Poll of Massachusetts registered voters (cross-tabs here). But, assuming it’s reasonably reliable, this result sure sounds like devastating news for national Democrats:
“Massachusetts health care was seen as working by 38 percent of registered voters, while just under half (49 percent) said it is not working, and 13 percent were undecided. Asked if Mitt Romney’s role in health care here would help or hurt his presidential campaign, 54 percent of voters said it would hurt; 22 percent felt it would help; and 22 percent were undecided.”
As far as I can see, RomneyCare’s “working” within the meaning of the polling question must largely be a function of public perceptions respecting its success in achieving something close to universal health care coverage and in slowing the rate of inflation in the health care market. According to this analysis from FactCheck.org, RomneyCare has certainly met expectations on the coverage front and has arguably met them on the cost front. Yet a near-majority of registered voters in a sample in which there are three Democrats for every Republicans still think RomneyCare's not working. Presumably there’d be an even higher level of dissatisfaction among a representative sample of likely voters.

That has two sobering implications for national Democrats who'll have to defend ObamaCare in the next election: first, people who have health insurance may not care nearly as much about universal coverage as Democrats thought; and second, even if ObamaCare succeeds in “bending the health care cost curve,” voters aren’t likely to notice.

6 comments:

Popinjay said...

As to Romney the candidate, it really depends on how he positions himself as a presidential candidate with respect to ObamaCare vis a vis his role as governor when Romneycare came about.

I thought he has already come out and said he if he were president, he would issue an executive order paving the way for Obamacare waivers to all 50 states, with a view toward ultimately repealing it. So he's all ready to explain why Romney Care made sense in his state at the time and ObamaCare makes no sense as a federal law for all 50 states.

Anyway, my point is, I agree with you. This polling result is devastating news for Dems and Obama.

Anonymous said...

You say ObamaCare might succeed in “bending the health care cost curve.” Remember, a curve can bend in either direction.

SpeedStar said...

The good thing about ObamaCare is that it is easy to mold in conjunction with Obama's own plan to pay off US debts in 10 years. We can only hope the president plays his cards right from this point.

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health insurance australia said...

When it comes to such surveys, a big factor is the current health situation among the respondents. Those who don't need health care are more likely to find nothing wrong about the health care system in place.

health insurance plans said...

Good point. I don't think there would be more than 10% people satisfied with health care if you ask in the less fortunate areas of Africa.

nursing homes in nj said...

"I don't think there would be more than 10% people satisfied with health care if you ask in the less fortunate areas of Africa." Where did you get that statistic? Africa is a better place than most people think. There are already urbanized cities on the continent.